Sponsor of the Global Investor Summit

 

Solvere is proud to sponsor the 2019 Global Infrastructure Investor Summit, taking place in Berlin on 18-21 March, where governments, investors, lenders, operators, contractors and service providers will gather to discuss collaborative working to advance major infrastructure projects from concept to completion.

On Monday 18 March our Managing Partner José Cordovilla will be presenting the case study Identification and management of critical risks in highway portfolios at 4.15pm at the Global Projects Forum. This will be an excellent opportunity to learn about Nautinfra®, our decision-support methodology for critical infrastructure identification and management. Afterwards, José will moderate the panel session on resilience, security of supply and business continuity of energy and infrastructure networks.

Our team will also attend the Global Investor Forum, the World’s largest gathering of institutional capital devoted to infrastructure. Solvere will be part of the Wednesday 20 March 4.00pm panel session on disruption, tail risks and black swans.

The Infrastructure Investor Global Summit is the annual, must-attend meeting place for the industry’s most influential practitioners, from institutional investors and fund managers, the advisory and service provider community who serve them and developers, energy companies and government bodies. This is the one date in every infrastructure investor’s diary and sets the tone for the year ahead. Attendees come to the Global Summit to make connections and shape the future of the industry.

If you would like to meet a member of the Solvere team during the Global Investor Summit in Berlin, or are interested in finding out more about Nautinfra®, please contact us or leave a comment below.

 

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Nautinfra – Infrastructure Complexity Simplified

Solvere has developed the Nautinfra® methodology to support investment decisions, life-cycle planning and operational risk management and help our Clients build resilient businesses.

Infrastructure systems are highly complex. Technology is increasing the ability control and utilise infrastructure, but at the same time has made it much more complex. The human factor (of individuals and organisations) introduces subjectivity and additional vulnerability, which may result in unpredictable failures that are often not identified. The overall resilience of the system will determine the response against a wide range of threats and critical situations, and therefore the potential losses: physical, economic, reputational, etc.

Solvere’s solution to this problem adopts the all-hazards resilience approach, which recognises that protecting critical infrastructure against all kinds of threats is unfeasible -for technical and economic reasons- and focuses instead on i) assessing the potential losses resulting from infrastructure failure scenarios; ii) defining the acceptable business risk level; and iii) proposes optimal strategies and tools that ensure a basic level of service during crises and the capacity to recover efficiently.

The value of this approach goes beyond conventional risk management, by introducing a tool that connects the infrastructure risks with the long-term strategy of business continuity at the heart of our Clients’ Corporate Social Responsibility.

We approach the infrastructure business as a system-of-systems, and our methodology uses techniques such as cognitive mapping and vulnerability analysis to build a working framework. Solvere has partnered with the University of Manchester – Alliance Business School to bring the state-of-the-art knowledge and practice in complex systems and human behaviour.

Nautinfra® Visual Data Dashboards are built on Qlik Sense Cloud® technology. Access your dashboards online, anywhere, from mobile or desktop devices. All the data are securely stored in a cloud platform, or your own servers.

Visit our Nautinfra website or contact us to find out more.

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Solvere and the University of Manchester form Partnership

One of the pillars of Solvere’s business is the unabated focus on creating value for our clients, no matter how complex the challenge.

With this in mind, Solvere and the University of Manchester – Alliance Business School have entered into a framework agreement to collaborate in the delivery of our critical infrastructure and resilience management solution Nautinfra®. Having worked together previously and with great success, our clients will keep benefitting from the combination of Solvere’s infrastructure business expertise and the state-of-the-art techniques developed by Dr Eunice Maytorena-Sanchez of the Alliance Manchester Business School (AMBS) – People, Management and Organisation Division.

Dr Maytorena specialises in stakeholder and cognitive mapping of complex business systems. This is an important element of Solvere’s system-of-systems, all-hazards resilience approach to critical infrastructure identification and management, where a proper understanding of the business complexity and its different dimensions and interdependencies is of the essence.

About Dr Maytorena: Lecturer in project management at AMBS and a researcher in various aspects of the built environment and project management. Click here for more information.

Founded in 1965, the AMBS is one of the UK’s first business schools, providing world-class, industry-focused education to undergraduates, postgraduates and executives across the globe. The Financial Times’ 2019 Global MBA Ranking places the school’s MBA 15th in Europe and 7th in the UK. Click here for more information.

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Sharing our PPP expertise with the Indonesian Government

Solvere Managing Partner Jose Cordovilla had the pleasure to deliver a knowledge-sharing session to the Indonesian Government. A broad representation from different institutions, including BAPPENAS, the Ministries of Finance, Public Works, Health, Transportation, Telecommunications and other, attended the event. The session took place at the IIGF offices in Jakarta, on 21 May 2018, and it was organised jointly with our local partner Muhammad Saifullah of Adhikari.

The Joint PPP Office of the Government of Indonesia kindly invited Solvere and Adhikari to deliver a knowledge-sharing workshop with the following objectives:

  • To review the basics of availability payment (AP) mechanisms in PPPs
  • To share experiences in the design and implementation of these mechanisms in other countries, mainly in Europe and Latin America.
  • To create a discussion forum to address questions and generate ideas

The session was very successful, with full attendance from a wide variety of Government officers and a very dynamic debate with the audience. The key takeaways from the workshop were:

  • APs are regular, guaranteed payments from the Public Partner to the Private Partner in exchange for the availability of an assets and/or a service.
  • APs are usually paid monthly or quarterly, and adjusted based on the functional availability of the service and the performance of the operator, measured by a number of Performance Indicators and the corresponding payment adjustment mechanisms.
  • AP in PPPs is a recent instrument. It only started in the late 1980’s with the UK’s PFI programme and there is limited real experience about its actual benefits and challenges.
  • AP is similar to obtaining a loan and paying the instalments regularly, but instead of receiving money upfront the Government receives an asset or a service that is ready to be used.
  • AP remunerates the Private Partner for retaining Operational Risk (excluding Demand Risk), typically combined with Construction Risk.
  • The Public Partner retains Demand Risk in part or in full. Lately there are examples of hybrid models, like the Peru Metro Lima Line 1 expansion, where the model is a combination of minimum demand guarantee + availability payment.
  • AP is a mitigation mechanism for commercial risk through contractual arrangements (different to credit enhancement mechanisms and also different to financial support like VGF).
  • AP is, in practice, very difficult to design and manage and requires management capacity and strong governance mechanisms to ensure the right outcomes.
  • AP is not adequate if the Government cannot guarantee the transfer of operational risk and monitor and evaluate the efficiency gains.

Solvere would like to thank the Joint Office of PPPs, especially Ibu Novie Andriani, for inviting us and treating us with such great hospitality.

For further information, please contact:
jose.cordovilla@solvere.es

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Technical issues, feasibility and bankability of Road PPPs in Spain

This is a Summary of the IPFA event hosted by Solvere Infraestructuras on May 10, 2018. Madrid

This IPFA event organised and hosted by Solvere Infraestructuras intended to create a space for debate and exchange of relevant ideas for public-private partnerships in Spanish roads, with special attention to the Radiales and the new Road Investment Plan (PIC) of the Ministry of Fomento (Public Works).

The venue was at full capacity and counted in approximately 70 professionals who represented broadly the road concessions sector, including the Government, construction companies, road operators, banks, insurers, rating agencies, investment funds and consulting firms.

The starting point was: Road PPPs must have technical and financial sustainability, but also – and no less important – generate long-term value and reinforce the legitimacy of such an infrastructure provision mechanism. This implies a significant change in the culture of the sector, towards greater collaboration and adaptability, innovating in how we work and how we take risks jointly, with greater transparency and boldness in the business approaches.

This spirit was reflected in the interventions of the speakers and attendees, who participated very actively in the debate.

 

Speakers and Structure of the Session

The session had the following speakers:

Jose Cordovilla, Managing Partner of Solvere Infraestructuras acted as moderator. In the first part, SEITT gave an overview of the new PIC and the future tenders for Radiales. SEITT and Société Générale shared their points of view and experiences on different aspects of road PPPs in Spain that were brought to the discussion. In the second part, Acciona and COPASA joined the panel and the debate was opened (as well as the possibility of asking questions) to the rest of the attendees.

Key Topics

Scope of the PIC and Radiales

The Radiales will be tendered as service concessions with total transfer of demand risk and a maximum duration of 25 years in 2 contracts:

  1. Radiales 2, 3, 4 and 5 together with the AP-36 Ocaña-La Roda, AP-41 Madrid-Toledo and M-12 Eje Aeropuerto
  2. Circunvalación de Alicante and the AP-7 Cartagena-Vera

The PIC roads will be tendered as public works concessions with a maximum term of 30 years, in 20 projects with investment values between 100 and 400 million euros. Payment mechanism will be availability, to provide commercial appeal to the contracts. The first two projects tendered will be the Murcia ring roads.

The European Investment Bank (EIB) will finance up to 50% of the investments, since they are part of the Trans-European Transport Network.

Commercial attractiveness of the projects

The private sector pointed out that after a number of years (6-7) in which there have been no road concessions in Spain, and the problem of the bankruptcy of Radiales, there is a great interest in the tenders being prepared by Fomento. For the screening of projects, the private sector takes into account the size of the investment (minimum), the bankability, the economic sense of the project, participation of the EIB and other factors. On the other hand, there is strong competition due to the entry of institutional investors.

The Government will establish the contract duration based on the return of investments and market competition, since there must be explicit justification for any duration above the 5-year maximum term established by the new Law on Public Sector Contracts.

Main Risks

An interactive poll used during the event revealed that the main risks for the private sector are the cost / timeframes for land acquisition and demand risk, followed by technological disruption and construction risk. The availability risk and the possible shortage of capable professionals in the sector are considered marginal.

Land Acquisition

In the PIC it seems the proposal will be that the State assume the excess costs of land acquisition between 150% and 250%, but not lower or higher than those thresholds. In the past, the private sector relied on the Responsabilidad Patrimonial de la Administración as a safety net for investments. The problems with the determination of the RPA in Radiales will probably cause the risks to be analysed more meticulously in the future.

Availability Payment

The PIC contract documents will include 15 performance indicators. Given the past experience with availability indicators (complexity in actual management, especially in terms of response times), the structure of indicators has been simplified with respect to previous projects (28 in the case of Benavente-Zamora, 2012) and the General Directorate of Roads will be in charge of monitoring these.

The availability payment for PIC projects will include a deduction in case the demand is lower than expected. The legal services of the Government have determined that, in order to consider the contract as ‘concesión de obras’ -based on the new Law on Public Sector Contracts of 2017- there must be demand risk in addition to availability on the private side, since it is interpreted that the availability – as defined by the existing indicators – does not constitute full transfer of supply risk.

The deduction mechanism that is proposed is up to 10% deduction of the availability fee if the demand drops to 40% of the forecasts, and up to 25% deduction if the drop in demand is 50%*.

*This text was edited to reflect the correct thresholds.

Technological disruption

The feasibility studies of the PIC do not incorporate the possible impact of technological changes such as the autonomous vehicle or MaaS (mobility as a service), since they are considered emerging, untested technologies.

The Radiales contracts and the PIC will only consider the possibility of re-equilibrium due to technological changes in cases where the obligation of new investments or incurring higher costs come from decisions by the contracting administration (i.e. the Ministry of Fomento). This would be the case of updates required as a result of new tunnels safety regulations, but would not apply to new requirements imposed by the Ministry of Industry, for example.

The concessionaire companies are considering innovations such as the monitored highway toward the upcoming tenders, but the experience of innovative initiatives in the past has not been satisfactory and the private sector understands that it has to arise at the request of the Administration.

The event attendees considered that autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and mobility as a service are the technologies with the greatest potential for disruption in road PPPs, far beyond new construction materials, electric vehicles or the introduction of open data policies.

Governance

It became obvious the concern of the sector about the social opposition to private participation in infrastructure management, wrongly named “privatisation”. The session saw an interesting discussion about how to strengthen the legitimacy of this public service provision mechanism.

It was highlighted the need for greater efforts in transparency, making more information publicly available on the real figures of roads with private operation, so that the public perceives in a clear way that infrastructures are costly to maintain and operate, and that private participation can bring benefits to the quality of the service.

The discussion also emphasised the importance of dedicating greater efforts and resources to the preparatory stages of the projects, for a better structuring of the PPPs.

Closing of the Session

The event finished with an informative note by Agata Skrzypczak (IPFA European Operations Manager) on the IPFA activities internationally and in Spain, followed by a lively networking drinks reception sponsored by Solvere.

 

Solvere provides has developed its own methodology for the estimation of contractual and financial risks in complex performance-based and availability payment contracts.

For further information, please contact:

jose.cordovilla@solvere.es

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Solvere is a member of the IPFA Spain Council

The International Project Finance Association (IPFA) invited us to act as a Council member on the IPFA’s Spain Council, because of the value of the role that we play within the industry. 

As a Council member, Solvere is actively involved in the promotion of knowledge and best practice in project finance amongst the professional community in Spain and abroad. More information can be found on the IPFA site.

IPFA is a company limited by guarantee, established in London in 1998 and is now the largest and the only international, independent, not-for-profit, professional members association dedicated to promoting and representing the interests of both public and private sector organisations involved in project finance worldwide. It has, as its members, key financial institutions, project sponsors, law firms, construction companies and operators active in PPP, project finance and infrastructure markets globally.

 

 

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